Readers of my previous blog might remember that, over the years, many of my posts on seemingly unrelated topics had an overarching theme. To put it succinctly, the status quo in West is not sustainable. Now some of you are thinking.. doesn’t that sound like what every shill trying to sell you investment opportunities in gold keeps on saying? Even people from diverse ideological backgrounds (neolibs, neocon, “woke” liberals, traditionalists etc) have often say similar things. So what is new or different about my prognostications compared to these shysters and morons? Well.. two things. Firstly, I do not believe in any ideology because they are all just simple-minded and solipsistic mental models of the world around them. Second, my version of decline in the West is based on quantifiable observations, not metaphysical morality plays.
Now let us talk about some of those quantifiable observations starting with the ability to build, maintain and repair infrastructure as an important proxy measure of a nation state’s vigor. If you have read enough history, you will know that the ability to quickly build large civil engineering projects- from road and rail networks, irrigation projects, power plants, airports, new residential or commercial districts etc, was once a major defining feature of western countries. It was also one of the main reasons why living standards in the West were much higher than other parts of the world. However, over the past three decades the ability of these countries to build anything large on time, on budget and without serious defects, has rapidly declined. While this is most obvious in USA, it is now routinely seen in other western countries countries from Germany and France to Finland and Sweden. Curiously, Japan is doing just fine.
On the other hand, the capability of previously poor and underdeveloped countries to build such projects properly has gone up by many magnitudes. While China is the most obvious example of a country which can build complex and absolutely colossal civil engineering projects on time, this is by no means restricted to East-Asia. Even India, a country famous for its lethargic and corrupt bureaucracy, now consistently builds good quality infrastructure on time and under budget. Clearly, something very basic has changed. So how did we go from a world where the West could build large things and structures to one where everybody but the West can do it? Some of you might blame it on demand saturation in West, others invoke an aging demographic profile or make claims that non-Western structures are not up to “western standards” or some other similar racist nonsense.
If those reasons had any merit, how can Japan- a country with a population older than anywhere in the West and relative “demand stagnation”- keep building high quality infrastructure and civil engineering projects on time and without big cost overruns? Perhaps, we have to look at other explanations and one is quite obvious- while another is not. Japan, unlike most Western countries is not a highly financialized economy and a significant part of its economical output comes from building and manufacturing things. The government in that country also puts a lot of effort into making sure that the lives of its average citizens are reasonably good. This is why, for example, even the most densely populated parts of that country have affordable housing, excellent public transport, lots of skilled and unskilled jobs in addition to a thriving manufacturing sector making things from automobiles and engines to chemicals and appliances. The construction industry in Japan is also still very active.
So let us talk about the less obvious, but equally important, reason for the difference between Japan and Western countries. While somewhat related to the governmental policy of getting things done, it can be best understood by posing a simple question. What is the overall process for the approval and monitoring of such projects? To put it bluntly, they put emphasis on making sure everything which is necessary gets built. This does not mean they ignore environmental considerations, but understand the tradeoffs and are willing to make them. Regulatory and environmental bureaucracies full of delusional and parasitic PMC-types are not allowed to exist in that country- despite the attempts of West to push that crap in Japan. Sure.. once in a while you will some example of overreach by this ‘build first’ approach but they are few and far in-between. If you don’t believe me- just compare the problems and issues that projects ranging from building high-rises to new high-speed rail lines in Western countries run into vs the situation in Japan.
But what does any of this have to do with an acceleration in the ongoing decline of Western countries? Well.. it comes down to a whole slew of horrendously dumb and delusional policies being pushed by various parts of the Western establishment, from hedge funds and certain billionaires to politicians and NGOs. You might have heard something about “green energy”, “green new deal”, “2030 sustainability” etc. These delusional ideas spawn equally delusional policy prescriptions- from banning cars with internal-combustion engines, banning natural gas for heating for homes and cooking appliances, closing down reliable power plants which use coal and natural gas etc. Some of you believe that this part of some elite-driven WEF agenda to impoverish and kill people, and that is certainly a minor contributor to this lunacy. But the major part of this lunacy is driven by a significant minority of people in the West (esp PMC-types) who lost connection with physical reality. These retards have two interesting beliefs. Firstly, they actually believe that THEY can control earth’s climate like a thermostat. Second, they believe the rest of the world will follow them, or be forced to follow them, in their self-destructive lunacy.
And it is their second belief which will be their downfall. The thing is.. the center of industrial production of almost everything for cars and computers to chemicals and clothes has now shifted to the East. The West no longer makes most of the products it requires to survive, let alone enjoy a high quality of life. More importantly, most of the markets with any worthwhile growth potential are now outside the West. Both the governments and populations of countries from China, India, Indonesia, Brazil and many others don’t give a fuck about “zero carbon”, “green energy” or “sustainability”. If anyone thinks that these countries are going (or be able) to ban gasoline or diesel powered automobiles by 2030 or 2035, they are kidding yourself. Furthermore, the technological base to make everything from cars, trucks, power plants, appliances is firmly outside the West. To put it nicely, the West cannot do anything to stop or hinder their economic growth. Did I mention that the West (esp western Europe) have been in soft terminal economic decline for almost two decades now. The rest of the world does not care about what they think or want, and their almost complete lack of support for economic sanctions levied by West against Russia tells you everything you need to know about their level of influence- or lack thereof.
Even the few western countries with some potential for growth such as USA etc will be primarily driven by demand from immigrants and their children, not their rapidly aging and declining native-born population. In other words, all potential for economic growth all over the world is almost exclusively driven by people who are not white liberals or PMCs. So what happens to a West which, through its own delusions, no longer has cheap and reliable electricity, cheap and reliable transport, inexpensive energy inputs for energy and the ability to build anything on a large scale. The simple answer is that it fades away, first slowly then fast. There is, of course, the possibility that popular discontent at rapidly falling living standards might make their leadership reconsider their environmentalist delusions- but I would not put much hope that entire countries full of effeminate men and mentally ill women will see the light of reality. And let us be honest about something.. would we really miss them?
What do you think? Comments?
A quick addition. Chris Hedges (great author) in his own way discussed these issues about the decline or fall of empires, particularly the USA.
I don't remember who he referenced as a source for the observation or claim that the decline of the US empire began many decades ago. It was after WWII when the country shifted from being an empire of production to an empire of consumption. I think he referenced the author Seymour Melman, but I am unsure. I have some of his books on my to-read list like Profits Without Production and the Permanent War Economy.
One would think the (so-called) leadership in the USA would be more concerned with the partnership and deals being worked on by BRICS and closer to home Brazil and Argentina considering creating a common currency than the nonsense they are usually fixated on. But what can one really expect from such poor stewards of the nation and its resources? You did have a post a long time ago about the difference between governance and government and people likely having more issues with poor governance than government itself.
Thanks for the follow on Twitter.