Initial Thoughts on the Israeli-Palestinian War

While posting this article earlier would likely have garnered more clicks, I thought it was prudent to wait and carefully evaluate multiple conflicting sources of information before doing an initial analysis. As some of you might know, I don’t write these things with the principal aim of gaining fame and popularity. With that in mind, let us now talk about what we can say with a very high degree of certainty about this still ongoing conflict. Some of my analysis and conclusions might not validate the cherished beliefs of some readers, but that is not my problem.

1] Let us talk about the massive failure of Israeli (and western) intelligence agencies in foreseeing the large and unprecedented incursion of Hamas into Israel. While there are those who like to imagine that this was some 4D chess move by Israeli intelligence agencies, this is unlikely for a number of reasons. Firstly, concealing a conspiracy like this across many countries to make it look like a failure would require a high degree of coordination between parties with competing and conflicting interests. Successful conspiracies become exponentially harder with every minor increase in number of parties with nonoverlapping interests. Moreover, there is a much simpler explanation for this debacle- one with a well understood background.

The reality is that foreign and domestic Israeli intelligence agencies (Mossad, Shin Bet etc) are.. for the lack of a better word.. mediocre. More importantly, this was always the case. If you don’t believe me, I would recommend you to read a few books about the even more spectacular failure of these agencies leading up to the 1973 Yom Kippur war. If you think this failure was bad.. that one was truly monumental. Note that this failure occurred within 6 years of the big Israeli victory in 1967. The popular image of Mossad etc as hypercompetent is based on media promotion and tons of bullshitting. No Israeli intelligence agency had ever demonstrated consistent superiority over an equivalent professionally run agency from a medium sized country.

To compare Mossad, Shin Bet to other intelligence agencies we should first compare it others with a far better record of competence. The best intelligence agencies in past hundred years were all Soviet (KGB, GRU etc) and any honest accounting of their competence would require a series of books. Western intelligence agencies lagged behind them, though the CIA, NSA etc could be considered as a distant second- even though they had access to much more money. We should should not forget that the intelligence agencies of some East-European countries in Soviet era were pretty good- especially those of East Germany (Stasi etc) and Yugoslavia (UDBA). Other western agencies such as M16 etc are further down the scale. My point is that Mossad, Shin Bet etc have historically been on the competence level of M16 or similar agencies in any other west-European country. Let me remind you that every single famous success of Israeli intelligence agency has been against neighboring Arab and African countries, ex-Nazis and small non-state organizations- not exactly a challenging environment.

2] This conflict has also exposed the IDF as mediocre and barely competent- which is not surprising since its is largely a conscript force. Other than their air-force’s ability to bomb people without air-defenses, their success have been very limited. Once again, there are historical reasons for this deficiency. Firstly, no casualty averse army is going to do well in a real conflict. This does not mean that one should casually throw men into dumb meat-grinder situations, like Ukraine is doing right now. But it is necessary to be realistic about the level of casualties likely in a war against even a half-competent opponent. While there are cultural and logistic reasons why Israel is casualty averse, they have been able to get away with it for so long only because they have only faced mediocre and poorly coordinated armies in past (1967 and 1973) or small ragtag groups of lightly armed militia. It is easy to win when your opponent is a fat kid or a baby, not when he is something closer to your size or stronger.

Furthermore, any dispassionate analysis of Israeli military “successes” since the 1960s shows a continuous and steep decline. There is a reason why Israel was forced to leave first Lebanon, then Gaza and failed to reinvade Lebanon in 2006. Since the 1970s, their adversaries have kept getting stronger to the point where even Hezbollah can successfully deter the IDF. Yes, you read that right- for the past 15 years, even a large non-state adversary has been able to successfully deter the IDF. The land (and sea) parts of the IDF are among its weakest, which is problematic since their air force can only do so much. To put it bluntly, the IDF lacks the capacity to project their forces much beyond their current borders- unlike in the 1960s. This is especially true if they are facing anything beyond a ragtag militia.

It does not help that too many in Israel seem to still believe that their relative military capabilities have not changed since the 1960s. This might help explain why they still like they own the region and get involved in stupid games with countries such as Iran. To put it bluntly, that country is now almost totally dependent on American support and military capability for anything beyond bombing civilians in Gaza. This is not a sustainable situation as USA is itself in the midst of a steep self-inflicted decline. Sooner or later, they will have to change their ways or find a new patron to replace USA. To make matters worse, the rise of very right-wing Zionist parties in Israel has not helped things as they keep making demands which are increasingly beyond the capabilities of their armed forces and country. This cannot end well.

3] As things stand now, Hamas has successfully entangled Israel into a war it cannot win- by any realistic definition of that word. Even if they bomb Gaza out of existence and kill tens of thousands of Palestinians, this war is now firmly a net loss for Israel. For starters, all hope of normalizing relations with neighboring Arab countries is now gone. Even if their rulers want to, the popular backlash in those countries against Israel is now too strong for that to occur anytime in near future. It does not help that the leadership class in Israel is now showing everyone in the world how Nazi-adjacent they really are in their mindset. Also note that public support for Israel in the West drops off pretty steeply with decreasing age, and this does not bode well for the future. Furthermore, the percentage of Muslims in population in West has increased a lot over past 20-30 years, and will continue to do so.

As mentioned previously, this conflict has also exposed the fragility and vulnerability of that country- while simultaneously shattering their carefully cultivated myth of competence and invincibility. Right now, other than its air-force and few dozen nukes, Israel does not have a internal capability to resist a competent adversary such as Iran. It is therefore almost totally dependent on continued American military support to have a fighting chance in any serious conflict- especially in the future. The ability of , even, Hamas to overload and deplete the supposedly invincible ‘Iron Dome’ missile system and destroy Merkava Tanks with FPV drones and decades old soviet anti-tank weapons is the first warning of what might happen to the IDF in a real war. At this point, it is worth mentioning that Hezbollah has many times the military resources of Hamas- including far more competent surface-to-surface missiles, anti-ship missiles and the beginnings of an air-defense system. Nothing in Israel (airfield, aircraft centers, power stations, logistic facilities) is beyond their reach.

Iran, as usual, is playing the long game. While not interested in getting involved in this situation directly (at his moment), that will change if the leadership in Israel does something stupid- which is more likely than not. If that does happen, it will get much more interesting and potentially catastrophic for Israel as Iran has many proxies outside its borders which can make life very interesting for those in Israel. This is in addition to their ability to strike that country with thousands of accurate missiles and guided munitions. Iran also has serious air-defenses as well as good electronic warfare capability. While Israel could get USA involved, the consequences would still be almost as disastrous for the former. It is just not a good situation- to put it mildly.

What do you think? Comments?