Ongoing Decline of Manufacturing Competence in Western Countries

A few months ago, I came across an interesting video of the main factory producing 155 mm artillery shells in USA. It was part of a news article or social media post about how USA was trying to increase its current output of basic military consumables such as artillery shells. As some of you might have heard, in contrast to USA and its allies, Russia has no problems in quickly increasing its production of everything from artillery shells of all calibers, drones and missiles to tanks, AFVs and aircraft. This has reached a point where Russia has a 10:1 advantage in the number of anything its armed forces field in Ukraine. Moreover the disparity between what Ukraine (supported by entire West) can field versus what Russia can field has only grown since February 2022. While the inability of USA to significantly increase production of the most common NATO artillery caliber, even after two years, might initially seem like an isolated problem- it is actually part of a much broader and disturbing pattern.

But what explains my fixation with the inability of USA and other NATO countries to scale up production of 155 mm artillery shells? What makes this issue so revealing about the decline of manufacturing competence in western countries, as opposed to the inability of these countries to manufacture other common products such as flat-screen TVs or smartphones? It comes down to the importance of various products in ensuring the continuation of basic functions in a country. To put it bluntly, there are many TV and smartphone manufacturers in the world and these products are not essential to running a nation- regardless of what some might want to believe. Basic military products such as the most common artillery caliber used by NATO countries, on the other hand, are essential for the basic function of any nation state- providing the means to wage defense or offensive wars.

While some will wonder if artillery has any role in modern wars with “smart” weapons, a look at the weapon consumption and usage patterns of any land war in the past 150 years (including the one in Ukraine) shows that artillery is by far the most important weapon system in such conflicts. It is therefore worthwhile to ask why USA lacks the ability to scale up basic artillery shell production and has to beg and scrounge for 155 mm shells from countries as diverse as South Korea and Pakistan. How did we get to a point where a country which was the most important and largest manufacturing power in the world between 1870s-1970s now has problems expanding its existing and very meager capability to manufacture basic military consumables? Let me remind readers, that this was the same country which, during WW2, could produce millions of artillery shells in diverse calibers per month along with tens of thousands of airplanes, tanks etc of each type, not to mention millions of small arms etc. Notably, USA was still able to do a pretty decent job in this area until the late 1980s. Now it doesn’t even have the capacity to defend shipping in the Red Sea from Houthis.

So how did we reach the point where USA can only manufacture a thousand 155 mm shells per day whereas Russia produces at least 10 times that amount of its 152 mm equivalent? And why do basic 155 mm shells cost 10-20 times more than their Russian 152 mm equivalent though both shells are rather similar in size, weight, range etc? Also, why does the main American plant making them look so run down and staffed by workers who look suspiciously close to retirement, in sharp contrast to the Russian factories churning them out. If this was an isolated incident, we could look past it but this is only the tip of the iceberg. Another example of this issue can be seen when, during last two years, USA decided to reopen or expand production lines for shoulder-fired SAMs, anti-tank missiles. Why did they have to hire retired ex-workers to man these lines and why was the output still a fraction of their Russian equivalents?

We are repeatedly told, by western media, that Russia is a country in deep trouble with old technology and a stagnant economy. Yet, in every real-life instance of the ability to manufacture quality weapons, Russian factories and workers leave their American equivalents in the dust. The same holds for nuclear submarines, naval ships, combat aircraft and helicopters etc. This occurs despite USA spending 10 times what Russia spends on defense- as measured in USD. Either most of that money is being wasted; spending as measured in USD is not a measure of reality or a combination of the two. Now let us talk about another problematic feature of American factories producing ammunition, missiles, vehicles, aircraft etc- the median age of their employees. As I mentioned in the previous paragraph, a rather large percentage of workers in these plants are on the older side with many approaching or past their late 60s.

This is relevant since most of these jobs, despite considerable automation, are still fairly physical jobs. This brings us the next logical question- where are there so few younger workers in these factories? This becomes even odder as these jobs are still quite well paid. In the past, USA and other western countries had no problems finding young workers who could perform skilled manual labor. Russia still has no problem finding such workers, nor do Asian countries such as Japan, China, South Korea, Vietnam, India etc. My point is that countries with an older population (Japan) or less “educated” than USA (Vietnam, India) have no problems finding and training skilled manual labor. Furthermore, this decline in manufacturing competence is not limited to USA as other western countries exhibit the same problem to varying levels. While some such as Germany still have a decent established base of skilled manual workers, they clearly lack the ability to build new factories or train new workers. Other such as UK, Canada, Spain, Italy etc have small specialized manufacturing sectors and are now largely based in finance, natural resources, tourism and providing services etc.

There are, of course, many explanations for this decline- ranging from the trend of encouraging everybody to get a university degree and desk job, mocking people who work ‘blue collar’ jobs, effects of deindustrialization subsequent to financialization of economies after 1980 etc. While this unfortunate change is likely due to a combination of multiple factors, the results are clear. Western countries, increasingly, lack the ability (factories as well as workers) that can build or make the very things necessary for maintaining the current standard of living in those countries. This applies to the mundane such as the ability to make even basic drugs such as Paracetamol, Ibuprofen, Amoxycillin to the exotic such as making high-end (or even low end) computer chips. We have also seen numerous projects from designing and building new airliners, large ships, spacecraft and civil engineering projects go horribly over budget, have serious errors and take much longer than projected. In some ways, the inability of USA and other western countries, to ramp up their paltry production of 155 mm artillery shells is just a tiny symptom of a much larger problem that is getting worse with each year.

What do you think? Comments?