Part 1- Some Initial Thoughts about the Second Trump Presidency

In the previous two posts (link 1 and link 2), I wrote about the Democrats and Kamala Harris lost the 2024 election and how Trump and Republicans won. This one will go into some of my very preliminary thoughts and predictions about how Trumps’ second presidency will work out.. or not. Before we go further, let me state some of the basic assumptions underlying these predictions. First, I am assuming there will be no major events between now and the first couple of months of Trump’s second presidency. So.. I am not accounting for Biden or his flunkies doing something dumb such as starting a nuclear war with Russia or attacking Iran. Similarly, something like a large false flag attack in USA (like 9/11) or another assassination attempt on Trump by the ‘deep state would have a massive and unpredictable effect on the course of his second presidency. With that out of the way, let us start by talking about Trump’s potential appointees.

1] While a few supposedly “mainstream” republican politicians are pretending to be surprised and offended by Trump’s current candidates and are making noises about not approving them- their ineffectual tantrums are not going to make any difference this time around. To understand why, we have to go back to early 2017, when Trump began his first term as president. Some readers might remember that during the first 2-3 years of that term, Trump tried hard to ingratiate himself with these “mainstream” republicans to the point where almost every single appointee was from the republican establishment. So how did the republican “establishment” repay him for this act of friendliness? Well.. almost every single one of them tried to continuously sabotage and backstab him while leaking damaging rumors. They then went on to blame every single subsequent electoral reversal and problem on him.

And it got worse after his first term and loss in 2020. These same dumb and ungrateful people started collaborating with Democrats to persecute Trump and provide moral support to them. In other words, they burned Trump and made it very clear that he could not trust them under any circumstances. These dummies had also hoped that the suspicious loss of Trump in 2020 would result in him leaving politics forever. As it turns out, that did not come to pass and Trump is now back with an electoral college, as well as popular vote, victory. He also did noticeably better than generic Republican candidates ( down ballot) in most parts of the country. Consequently, he is now the unquestioned leader of Republican party in more ways than one. The power of the old “respectable” establishment has also been greatly diminished for foreseeable future and it has zero worthwhile leverage over Trump. Moreover, the many ways they tried to undermine him and cheer on those trying to destroy him is fresh in his mind.

Since this is Trump’s second and last term as president, you can be sure that he will spend some effort belittling and humiliating them- and what better way to start this than by making them confirm some of most unconventional candidates in recent memory. Readers might wonder if some of those supposedly “moderate” Republicans might successfully stop him, and to that I have one answer- recess appointments. Yes, doing so will be unusual but still perfectly legal and at this point Trump is actively trying to humiliate those who undermined him. I should also add that unlike the first term when Trump still tried to mend bridges with legacy media and did care about their opinions, he now despises them- so no amount of fake scandals are going to stop his nominees from being appointed, one way or the other. I even expect Matt Gaetz to join him in some role which does not require senate confirmation. Personally, I am looking forward to the humiliation of republican establishment types.

2] Let us now move on the area of foreign policy- which is likely to be the biggest disappointment of Trump’s second presidency. To be fair, let us start with the areas in which he might do well- up to a point. Trump and his minions might do a pretty decent job on regional issues such as further renegotiation of NAFTA, building that long-promised southern border wall and humiliating uppity governments such as the current one in Brazil. I also predict that Justin Trudeau is not going to be the prime minister of Canada for much longer. To be honest.. these are net positives for almost everyone concerned. But will Trump be able to deliver on his promise to stop illegal immigration and deport tens of millions of illegals who are already in USA? Well.. in both cases he will be partially successful, though stopping new illegal immigration is easier than deporting tens of millions who are already here- but it is conceivable that most illegal migrants who entered USA after 2021 could end up being deported.

It should also be noted that an intentional unwillingness by Democrats to stop illegal immigration was one of the three main reasons why Trump won in 2024- so he pretty much has to deliver on this issue. Also, he does not have to get congress and senate to pass a ton of new laws to get this done as most of what he wants can be achieved by using his executive powers. It would be nice to get the issue of legal immigration sorted out, but that is clearly not the priority at this moment. Now let us talk about where he might fail- in especially humiliating ways, starting with the Ukraine War. While he is not a fan of Ukraine and has no antipathy towards Russia, Trump is unfortunately a baby-boomer and thinks that the world has not changed since 1991- which is a fancy way of saying that he still believes that USA has the military and economic might to coerce Russia into accepting some sort of deal to “freeze” the war.

However, as recent events such as the Afghanistan withdrawal, inability of US Navy to end Houthi blockade in Red Sea, inability to even come close to matching Russian weapon production and capability have shown- USA is a power in steep decline. While the process of deindustrializing USA and privileging finance over everything else began decades before Trump became president- he is going to be first one to face the true scope and full consequences of this profound and likely irreversible decline. The unpleasant reality is that USA has no realistic capability to coerce Russia into anything, especially since it has also reneged on many treaties and agreements with Russia over past two decades. Does that mean that Trump and some of his neocon flunkies will not try something rash or stupid. Well.. they might but the results will be spectacularly disastrous and very humiliatingly for Trump.

Then there is issue of ongoing genocide in Gaza by Israel, the still unresolved conflict in Syria and potential direct conflict with Iran. While Trump, like many white baby-boomers is a Israel supporter- a larger and increasing number of his voter base is not. It is telling that even most Republican politicians (especially below a certain age) no longer pretend that what Israel is doing in Gaza is somehow not really a genocide. Even Trump is not a fan of what is happening there and has repeatedly asked Israel to wind down their genocide in Gaza. However a lot of the political class in this country and the deep state is still very pro-Israel as are many of his major political donors- so it remains to be seen if he can achieve anything positive. Regardless, the fallout from that conflict is very likely going to visit American shores soon- in some newsworthy ways. The still unresolved conflict in Syria is another issue that will frustrate Trump since two of his main allies (Israel and Turkey) are major supporters of the Jihadists.

It should be noted that the international situation has changed a lot since he was President the first time and to be blunt- Trump and USA simply has a much narrower set of options to deal with this conflict. In the past, Russian and Iranian support for Syria while often strong, was not consistent. However since early 2022, both countries have a much stronger set of reasons and capabilities to support Syria. In spite of the latest flare-up in Syria, which will be contained, the future of western support of Jihadists does not look promising. The real question then is- will Trump eat humble pie and slowly withdraw American support from Jihadist or will be double down into what could be the spark point for a war with Iran. Talking about Iran and its ongoing conflict with Israel, a lot has also changed since Trump was president the first time around. For starters, Iran has a far larger and much more capable missile force with clearly demonstrated capability to bypass and overwhelm any anti-missile systems deployed by Israel and USA. This is in addition to their already known capability to easily target and destroy most American military bases in the Middle-East.

Let me be blunt about something.. any serious surprise American attack on Iran will quickly result in massive casualties for American troops deployed in that region- in addition to significant loss of military facilities and hardware. The same holds true for ships, including aircraft carrier groups deployed within 1,000 km of Iran. This large missile capability also makes it impossible for USA to deploy ground troops or other assets anywhere near Iran in preparation of an invasion, unlike what occurred in 1991 when they invaded Iraq. Short of using nuclear weapons, USA (forget Israel) cannot achieve any serious military objective in a war with Iran. Which brings us to the issue of Iran developing nuclear weapons. While there are some who think that Iran already has developed and deployed such weapons, likely with North Korean assistance, thus far Iran has not claimed to be a nuclear weapon power. It is however also very clear that they have more than enough capability to do, comfortably, within a week.

The belligerent attitudes of a pro-Israel Trump administration will very likely make Iran go down that path and officially become a nuclear power. Something very similar happened during the early 2000s when a belligerent Bush administration made North Korea decide to become a nuclear weapon power. It should be understood that more than one small solid-fuel based satellite launcher developed by Iran could be easily converted into an ICBM capable of reaching most major American metropolitan areas. It should also be noted that any economic sanction policies on Iran won’t work like they did in the 2010s because the world has changed a lot since then and countries such as China are now openly dismissive of western dictates. And this brings us to the issue of China and Taiwan. While I could write an entire series about this topic, the very short version is that a series of events from irreversible changes in national power balances, renewed American hostility towards China makes it likely that the long-awaited reunification of Taiwan with China will occur within the next few years and potentially in Trump’s second term. While such an event will be highly humiliating to USA, it would be hard to say that it was unexpected.

In the next part, I hope to go into a bit more about international relations, changes to domestic economic policies and cultural shifts which are likely to occur in the second Trump presidency.

What do you think? Comments?