Part 4- Some Initial Thoughts about the Second Trump Presidency

In the previous part of this series, I wrote about how any attempt by USA to “win” a real trade or military war against China will end up in a nasty defeat and profound public humiliation for the former. This combination of defeat and public humiliation will then go on to precipitate the next step in the ongoing implosion of the American Empire-or whatever is still left of it. However stating this obvious fact to the majority in USA, especially those from “elite universities”, makes them repeat some delusional nonsense about China being on the verge of collapse and USA having a bright future- even when every single bit of observable evidence shows otherwise. A similar set of delusional beliefs are also seen in Western and Central Europe, suggesting a strong racial component to such delusions of grandeur. It is as if the majority of people in North America and Western/Central Europe are unable to imagine a world in which their nations are nothing more than medium to minor players.

This extreme mismatch between objective reality and delusions of grandeur will keep driving the politics and general behavior of western countries, especially USA, for the next few years. While some are a bit closer to accepting the new reality of industrial power having permanently shifting to Asia, others are still clinging on the belief that the world hasn’t changed since 1991 or 1997. There is however one aspect of these delusions which is especially dangerous to those who harbor them. Many in the West (but especially their “elites” and leaders) want to believe in their own BS narratives about the world, so desperately, that they will double down at every instance of external reality exposing their delusions. Instead of gradually abandoning their old worldview in the face of contrary evidence, they will hold on even harder to their rotten belief system- and this has some major real world effects such as speeding up the collapse of their status quo. One area where we can this phenomena in action is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war or to be more precise- how the West is reacting to what was obvious to any non-delusional person before this conflict even started.

As some readers might remember, I have written a number of posts about this conflict since the week it began in late February 2022. The main points in those posts can be summarized as follows: 1] The origins of this conflict can be traced back to 2014, 2004 or 1999 depending on how far back one wants to go; 2] Russia always possessed much more military and industrial capacity than Ukraine and the combined West, including USA; 3] The main goal of Russia was a war of attrition which would allow it to reduce Ukraine to an empty shell of its former self through war related emigration and lop-sided battlefield casualties; 4] Territorial gains were, at best, a secondary goal for Russia and it was never interested in occupying the western parts of Ukraine for a number of reasons; 5] This war has exposed the sorry state of weapon manufacturing capacity in the West, especially USA, as well the mediocre quality of their expensive and scarce weapon systems; 6] The meta goal of this war, for Russia, was to make sure that every NATO member in Europe understood that the alliance was a paper tiger incapable of fighting a real war and thus create conditions for rolling back the scope of this alliance. In early 2025, Russia has either achieved every goal or is close to doing so- regardless of what paid western shills want you to believe.

This war has also inadvertently achieved certain milestones which have sped up the process of final decline for the American Empire. As some might remember, at the beginning of this conflict, many delusionary “elites” in the West (both elected and bureaucrats) seriously believed that a huge cascade of economic sanctions would hurt the Russian economy, negatively affect its war effort, cause civil discontent and result in the overthrow of Putin. Much to their surprise and dismay, the Russian economy has gotten even stronger, military manufacturing has rapidly scaled up and Putin has become even more popular with Russians. In fact, the sanctions on Russia have been helpful for getting rid of the last few oligarchs who were sympathetic to the West in addition to helping to improve connections of Russian economy with Asia and rest of the world. In other words, we now have the first clear example of western economic sanctions being a worse-than-useless tool of coercion for dealing with any country that is not small and possess a real economy.

But what does any of this have to do with the Trump’s second presidency? For starters, we have to first acknowledge an uncomfortable truth about Trump, his current inner circle and his MAGA base. The thing is.. they still think that the world hasn’t changed since 1991 or 1997. These people still imagine that the USA to be some sort of military superpower which can fight and win a conventional, or more bizarrely a nuclear, war against any other nation on this planet. However as recent events in the Red Sea have shown, the much celebrated American navy cannot even deter Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen and secure the Suez canal against them. Things have gotten so bad that American nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, once the main instruments of naval power projection in 20th century, have to remain at least 650 miles away from Yemen to avoid getting hit by Houthi missiles and drones. It does not help that the American army has lost most of its capability to fight real wars due to unprecedented financialization of military-industrial complex after 1991 and “Global War on Terror”- which they lost.

To put it another way, nuclear submarines (SSBNs and SSNs) are the only properly functioning part of American armed forces and neither is useful in conventional warfare against another nuclear weapon power. Between the sorry condition of its armed forces, financialized MIC which can only produce a few white elephants, general loss of industrial base and impotence of economic sanctions against other major powers (Russia, China etc), Trump’s options for dealing with Russia are very limited and even the most generous face-saving conditions for USA which Russia would agree to would still look like a massive humiliation and defeat for USA. As things stand right now, there is really no pathway for peace in Ukraine where USA can also save face. However, the problem with such an outcome is that the majority of people in USA, especially within the MAGA base, still live in a world where it is still 1991 or 1997 and will not be able to mentally accept the result.

So.. we are soon going to find out if Trump can eat crow in public, while pretending it is the ‘best feast in the world’- but also more importantly if the “deep state” and his MAGA base allows him to go down that path without serious consequences. He might also try to kick the proverbial can down the road, but the situation for Ukraine is too dire for this to be a viable strategy for more than a few months. Trump is, hence, stuck between a rock and a hard place because both of his options are almost equally bad for him. In the next post of this series, I will share my thoughts on Trump’s ongoing attempts to tame the hostile federal bureaucracy- specifically on whether they will achieve anything worthwhile.

What do you think? Comments?