Predictions about Fallout from Situation in Ukraine: Apr 9, 2022

As regular readers know, this is not my first post on this Substack on this topic. In previous posts, I have addressed the immediate history of this conflict, the short and medium term effects of the conflict, the almost inevitable partition of Ukraine as well as complete lack of a Plan B by western countries for for dealing with Russia when it inevitably succeeds in those goals. I could have written more on this topic, but to be honest, the general direction of outcome for this conflict have been fixed for almost a month and posting click-bait articles is not compatible with my style of writing. With that out of the way, let us have a look at how things have gone thus far and where they might lead- and not just in the two countries formally involved in this conflict.

1] The widespread and massive economic sanctions against Russia have turned out to be a massive failure, on multiple levels. For starters, the value of Rouble against USD and other western currencies is now back to where it was before invasion of Ukraine began in late February. There have been no lasting shortages of essentials in Russia, largely because it is large enough to produce the food, energy and other essentials required to keep things going on as usual. Visa and Mastercard have been replaced by local and Chinese alternatives. It also helps that the largest manufacturing superpower in existence, China, is going to keep supplying almost everything else required by Russia. A lot of western idiots.. I mean “experts”.. keep barking about secondary sanctions on products such as microchips, automobile parts etc.

But let us be serious for a moment.. between import substitution and stuff from China somehow ‘finding’ its way into Russia, they are pretty much covered for that sort of stuff. In other words, these dumb sanctions have only sped up the process of China becoming the undisputed center of the global economy. It should be noted that even large countries with less than friendly relations with China, such as India, prefer to buy essential stuff from China than USA or other western countries. The market share lost by corporations in the demographically terminal west because of these sanctions is not coming back in Russia, or in other countries who are talking a hard second look at their sourcing of those products. Then again, idiots in western Europe who want to cut their own throats to win approval of USA deserve their fate.

2] The same cannot be said for Russian exports (especially energy and food) which cannot be replaced in anything less than a decade. While a few small and insignificant countries such as the Baltic states might be able to replace their natural gas imports from Russia with LNG, it will come at a greatly increased cost. Other dumb states, such as Poland, are pretending they can stop all Russian imports of energy by the end of this year. However, the numbers don’t add up. You cannot simply convert natural gas powered electric power stations into coal fueled ones- and there is a reason why Poland imported even coal from Russia, rather than use its own inferior quality stuff. Best of luck competing against other richer west European countries for the non-existent surplus of American LNG. All those people in Poland are going to love their cost for electricity going up 3-5x within a year, if they can find enough LNG to run a stable electrical grid. Of course, Poles have never been know for their intellect.

And talking about LNG, the EU coal of stopping all import of natural gas from Russia by 2027 would require many impossible things to happen- starting with construction of almost 100 brand new high capacity LNG transport ships, the immediate startup of production of new natural gas sources in USA, construction of new specialized LNG terminals on both sides of the Atlantic and mobilization of the capital and workforce to achieve these goals. Given the bullshit ESG and “green” agendas actively pursued by morons in the West along with serious inability of those countries to successfully complete large industrial and civil engineering projects on time, I wish them all the luck- because they are going to need it! And no.. renewable energy cannot replace natural gas (even under ideal conditions) for reasons that are easy to understand if you have taken 1st and 2nd year course in physics and chemistry. But of course, science is patriarchal and racist not to mention ‘cis-gender’.

3] And it gets worse. See, the thing is.. you require different grades of crude oil to refine different types of fuels. While it is possible to use less-than-optimal grades of crude to make diesel or any other fuel, doing so affects cost and production volumes. All of this is a roundabout way to say that the grade of crude oils exported by Russia, especially at the volumes supplied, cannot be replaced without other grades of crude without causing massive increases in the cost of Diesel and issues with availability. But why does that matter? Well.. have a look at what all those trucks and other large commercial vehicles use as fuel. Airplanes and ships use kerosene and heavy fuel oil. Pretty much all major forms of transportation in the world use heavier hydrocarbon fuels and not using Russia crude oil grades and refined products means a very serious shortfall of production as well as a massive increase in their costs- which are then transferred onto customers causing ever increasing levels of inflation and decreasing living standards. Wonder how people in Germany, France etc will react once they start losing jobs on a large scale while simultaneously having to pay for more for essentials.

Then there is issue of how any “sanctions” against Russia will affect the availability of Nitrogen Fertilizers, Potash and many other bulk chemical used in Agriculture and Industry. If you think that west European countries can live with long-term shortages of those materials and experience no serious negative effects on their economies and societies, I have a bridge to sell you. The much more likely outcome of these shortages will be even higher rates of inflation, massive shortages, job loss and general social unrest. Did I mention that Russia will still sell all that stuff to other countries such as China? There is also the pesky matter of Russia (and Ukraine) being among the largest exporters of Wheat and some other foodstuffs such as Sunflower oil. Once again, China has no compunctions about buying and reselling those products at a profit and to advance its long-term interests in certain parts of the world.

The point I am trying to make is that all the actions taken by West, led by USA, have thus far been a series of massive self-goals with highly negative effects on their own economies. In the next post on this topic I will write about how the supply of western weapons to whatever is left of Ukraine has no worthwhile effect on the final outcome, while having serious negative effects on Ukraine and nearby counties such as Poland.

What do you think? Comments?