Vassal Nations after Decline of American Empire

If you have read some history, you will know that vassal nations do not fare well after the decline or collapse of the empire who is propping them up. This is especially true for vassals which are are surrounded by traditionally hostile neighbors or owe their stature to being faithful outposts of the empire in decline. With that in mind, let us talk about the likely fate of three nations who owe their current international status to being faithful vassal states of the American empire. As many of you already know, the American empire (at least in its current form) has been on a path of rapid decline for the past 15 years. While we can argue about the mix of reasons and their contribution to the process, it is hard to hide that this decline is both significant and widespread- affecting everything from internal social stability to ability to project military power.

For the purposes of this post, I am going to use three examples- Israel, Taiwan and UK. As you will soon see, there is a reason why I chose these three countries rather than others such as Germany or Baltic States- even though the later are vassal states in all but name. It comes down to their relative ability (or lack thereof) and options for adjusting to a world order where the American empire is in decline or functionally irrelevant- at least, when compared to current state of affairs. Simply put, countries such as Germany and even the Baltic states have more options to maintain something close to their current status in a post-American world than others. With that out the way, let us start talking about the first of the three- Israel.

1] Of all the countries which are dependent on American empire for maintaining their current position in the world- Israel ranks at, or very near, the top. There are many reasons for this, ranging from the influence of Jewish diaspora in USA to the location of that country in the Middle-East. However this alliance was neither inevitable nor natural- as many people imagine today. Indeed, relations between the two countries were barely friendly as late as the mid-1960s. In the first twenty years after Israel was established, it maintained good relations with a number of countries which will surprise you- including the USSR, France and others. Relations with USA, official and unofficial, started improving after the mid 1960s and started reaching their current levels only after the 1980s.

The point I am trying to make is that a lot of you believe about the supposedly special relationship between those two countries is post facto hagiography made up after the 1980s. Having said that, it is equally true that the current economy and military might of Israel is unusually dependent on maintaining this relationship. And this brings me to whole business about who controls whom. While the interests of Israel do have an outsize influence on certain aspects of American politics, the reality is that the system in this country is just too large and unwieldy to control. Think about it this way- who would be more affected if the other disappeared from the face of this earth? That is how you know who is the vassal and who is the empire with real power.

Coming back to country in question, how would it deal with the decline of American empire? Well.. we already have a basic idea of how they would deal with this situation. For starters, they will greatly expand their trade with other countries such as China and pretty much anyone else who needs what they can provide and vice-versa. In some ways, this is reminiscent of what they used to do in first 2-3 decades of their existence. Trade with other countries will largely make up with reduced opportunities to do so with USA and west European countries, but these new “friends” are not going to support the military and strategic interests of Israel to anywhere near the levels which USA has done since the early 1990s.

As far as they are concerned, Israel is just another country in Middle-East, albeit one with much less oil or gas than others in the neighborhood. Having a highly educated population with skills will help- but not enough to offset loss of connection with dominant American empire and we are not even going to talk about demographic issues in that country by the end of this decade. It will be interesting to see if that country can survive in its current form, a couple of decades from now. If it does, the changes necessary to make that possible might be quite drastic.

2] Taiwan is another example of a country whose current status is largely dependent on dominance of the America empire. In the case of Taiwan, this is doubly so since it would functionally cease to exist as a separate entity once it become obvious that USA does not have the will or ability to defend that island from China- and let us be honest, things are already pretty close to that point. To make matters more interesting, Taiwan is a very important part of global economy when it comes to hard-to-replace products such as CPUs and other electronic components. The inevitable takeover by China in near future will have serious negative effects on American economy and strategic capabilities. Also, the fall of Taiwan might occur before that of American empire as well as accelerate the process for the later.

Having said all of this, Taiwan as an economy will be fine after its annexation by China. The two countries are already very important trading partners for reach other and removing national boundaries will likely increase such trade. Beijing is also very likely to treat Taiwan like Hong Kong and give it some degree of autonomy, especially if doing so makes it easier to rule that island. Furthermore, the movement of capital and industrial capability from the West to East, combined with self-inflicted damage in west due to environmentalism, will ensure that the decline of American empire and western European markets will have fairly limited effects on the future of people and the economy of that island. Taiwan will do better than Israel after American empire.

3] Now let us talk about UK, who as you might remember was once the center of an empire. Superficially, it would seem that a country with the size and population of UK would be barely affected by an implosion of American empire. However a more careful look at the economy of the country paints a very different picture. See.. unlike some European countries such as Germany, France and even Italy or Spain- UK decided to deindustrialize and become a “financial and services” economy starting in the 1980s. If you don’t believe me- make a list of physical products made in UK or natural resources extracted in that country. It is a very short list- isn’t it? This is even more obvious when you realise that the industrial revolution started in that country and UK was among the top five manufacturing economies in world as 1946.

Today the majority of money which changes hand in UK comes from international financial transactions and arbitrage, services and sales, real estate, services including tourism. In other words, the economy of UK today is largely reliant on the current international status quo- patterns of trade, exchange rates, need for certain financial services and relative perceived power of various countries. Anything which disrupts this status quo, especially large scale global power balances will do a number on whatever is remaining of their economy. While countries such as Japan and Germany will still have customers for their products, the same cannot be said for the financial and other services provided by UK when the center of global power moves away from USA and western Europe- and it some ways, this process is well underway.

What do you think? Comments?