What if Joe Biden Dies Before 2024 Election?

While I am writing up a couple of longer posts, here is a brief post on a very topical issue- namely, what happens if Joe Biden passes away from natural causes before the actual day of the 2024 election? Now I know what some of you might be thinking that my mention of this scenario has something to do with his age. Well.. not really. I know plenty of even older people (late 80s) who are in pretty good health, lead independent lives and are otherwise equivalent to those in their 70s. In fact, there are some people in the senate who are a few years older than Joe Biden and in much better physical and mental shape than him. So this is not about Biden’s age- rather it is about his current physical condition, which to put it politely.. is not good. It is also no secret that Biden is not in charge of any major decisions made by his administration.

But why do I think that Joe Biden’s physical condition is poor, other than because of his frequent stumbles while climbing stairs and multiple public instances of cognitive problems? It comes down to his medical history.. specifically the long-term effects of two extensive neurosurgical procedures in the late 1980s to repair two major cerebral aneurysms. The very short version is that major neuro-surgical procedures often result in residual brain damage similar to other forms of head trauma, manifesting decades later in the form of accelerated cognitive dysfunction. This does not imply that every person who had major neurosurgery will get accelerated dementia in old age, but the increase in risk for that outcome is substantial. One of the more important, but often ignored, effects of old-age dementia is increased general frailty.

In other words, people with dementia are often far more likely to die to from other causes ranging from ordinary infections such as pneumonia, hospitalizations due to falls etc. While Biden probably gets excellent health care and close attention due to him being president, the mitigating effects of such care on his frailty are only partial. Given that 2024 is a normal election year (and not 2020), Biden will be forced to step outside his normal routine to give a few speeches and attend some gatherings all over the country every week. Given these demands on his frail body, there is a very realistic chance that he will either have a serious and widely publicized health problem or even pass away before the election in early November 2024.

So here is my real question- how will the American political system react if Joe Biden passes away or experiences a very serious illness between now and election day 2024. To date, we have heard numerous half-baked ideas ranging from Kamala Harris taking over to Gavin Newsom or Michelle Obama being parachuted into that position. While the above mentioned possibilities might be acceptable to faithful Democratic party voters, their numbers are not sufficient to win the election. To make matters more interesting, incompetent PR by the Democratic party in the event of such a situation would almost certainly make things worse. Sure.. they could always try to steal the election like they did in 2020, but the outcome might be very different this time.

In 2020, many people were scared of COVID-19 and generally tired of Trump. In 2024, they now see the Trump era as being significantly better than everything which has transpired since Biden was allegedly “elected” in Nov 2020. From uncontrolled illegal immigration, serious inflation, wages not catching up, no improvements in healthcare and a general inability of USA to even feign military competence- things look much worse for the average person and voter than under Trump.

What do you think? Comments?