Recent Hamas Attack on Israel was Tactical and Strategic Genius

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a post about my initial thoughts on the ongoing Israel-Palestinian war. It went over the basics, such as how this attack by Hamas exposed the real mediocre nature of Israel’s allegedly hyper-competent intelligence services and armed forces. To be fair, anyone familiar with the serious real-life limitations of those institutions and that particular country would not have found this outcome surprising- but many wanted to believe their shiny propaganda. That post also briefly touched on how Hamas had likely calibrated this provocation to produce the direct and indirect effects, which we are now seeing- not just in Israel. With that in mind, let us expand on it and see how the Hamas attack on October 7th was tactical and strategic genius.

Beginning with why it was tactical genius..

1] As mentioned in my previous article on this topic, this attack exposed Israel’s much publicized intelligence agencies (Mossad, Shin Bet etc) as middling and mediocre. While not a surprise to anyone who understands how intelligence agencies work, their failure modes and their general limitations- it was still a major shock to many (but especially in Israel, USA etc) who had been long fed a steady diet of lies and BS about how they were full of hyper-competent supermen and women. This attack showed everyone that those agencies are just as mediocre as their counterparts in any other west-European country.

2] On a related note, it also showed that the path taken by Israel over past four decades to militarily dominate its Arab neighbors by using allegedly “high technology” weapons and surveillance systems was an expensive delusion. This is relevant because the belief, held my many, that Israel would prevail over its neighbors in a real war in 21st century was largely based on it having more “high tech” weapons and systems. It was also one of the major factors behind people feeling safe in that country. The attack on October 7th torched that delusion in a spectacular fashion. Then again, anyone following how Russia has been systematically destroying western “high tech” weapon systems in Ukraine would have already figured this out.

3] The attack also exposed the IDF for what it really is (and always has been) - a mostly conscript army of middling competence which hasn’t fought a single real war in decades. More importantly, we are also seeing evidence from recent video clips on Twitter etc that they have not learnt anything from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine- especially when it comes to modern urban fighting, anti-tank missiles, small FPV drones etc. In the past, IDF understood that their success in the battlefield was exclusively due to facing poorly trained and equipped Arab armies. While a lot has changed between 1967 or 1973 and 2023 in the real world, the mindset of IDF does appear to have changed since the 1970s or 1980s.

4] As stated previously, Hamas fully expected its attack to elicit a large dumb response from Israel which would involve indiscriminate bombing of civilians in Gaza- with tens of thousands of casualties. Of course, such attacks would have little effect on Hamas who are safe in their multiple tunnel networks which extend for a couple hundred kilometers. While civilian Arab casualties might not have been a big issue for Israel in previous eras, because its sympathizers dominated western mainstream media- the rise of smartphones and multiple social media networks has made it impossible to hide the nasty reality of such bombings from the rest of world. Hamas clearly understood this, but Israel did not and still have no clue about how to adapt to this new social media driven world- and their incompetent online shills and tone-deaf propagandists are not helping matters.

5] The scale and scope of that Hamas attack make it essentially impossible for Israel to walk back from this confrontation or take a measured approach. Consequently, they will have to enter Gaza and experience the full consequences of close quarter urban fighting against a determined and adequately equipped adversary, entrenched in many tunnel systems. All the prior bombing of Gaza, which destroyed many buildings, paradoxically makes the job of invading much harder. To make matters worse, the IDF has historically been casualty averse, thus making an already difficult task that much harder. Some might think that IDF can keep bombing Gaza until it is uninhabitable, but that course of action will get Hezbollah and other parties (who have dozens to hundreds of times more weapons and personal) involved in this conflict- opening more fronts and making an already difficult conflict even harder.

Now, here is why it is strategic genius..

6] The reaction of Israelis (especially their political and military leaders) to this attack exposes that country as an insipid version of Nazi Germany. In some ways, this is one of most consequential and important effects of the Hamas attack and becomes even more relevant as younger generations all around the world, but especially in West, do not see Israel as a normal country. Exposing the Zionist mindset as ethno-supremacist genocidal in the age of social media is a stroke of genius. In the past, Israel could pretend to be a “civilized western” democracy striving for peaceful coexistence with its “belligerent” Arab neighbors. Sometime in the 1990s, this changed and since then Israel has become pretty openly and blatantly right wing. However they were still able to hide that shift and extent of their ethno-supremacist beliefs by controlling mainstream media in West.

That boat has now sailed, and everybody can see the ugliness of their ideology. To be clear, I am not saying that Israel is Nazi Germany, because there are major differences between the two. For example- Nazis had much better uniforms and were notably more photogenic. Nazis were also far more honest and open about what they wanted to achieve and their need for “lebensraum”. They were also not dependent on a declining superpower, such as USA, for their survival. To be blunt, Zionism is a weak and insipid imitation of Nazism.. like a watered down version of some department-store brand soda in comparison with original Coca-Cola.

7] The attack exposed all major institutions of Israel supposed to protect its Jewish citizens as being somewhere between mediocre and incompetent. While this has been mentioned previously (points 1 and 3), the long term implications of this exposure are even more problematic than the acute and direct effects. A large part of the ability of Israel to attract more Jewish immigrants or dual citizens was based on its supposed ability to protect them from all those pesky Arabs. This has been now exposed as non-factual. When you add this to the negative effects of any prolonged serious conflict on the Israeli economy, it is reasonable to assume that more than a few dual nationality Israeli citizens might suddenly feel home-sick for their old countries. After all, how many people want to risk their lives and profit for an ideology?

8] On a related topic, any large military mobilization and military conflict lasting for more than a few weeks is not compatible with the economy of Israel- especially its ability to keep earning foreign exchange. While USA could certainly try to cover this problem with their money printing, that would not solve the problem of employment and future security of investments. This is also why Israel, historically, has preferred to fight short intense wars rather than long slogging affairs. Sprinters don’t make good long-distance runners. There are many sectors of Israeli economy (tourism. high-tech manufacturing and assembly, diamond cutting etc) which are dependent on relative normalcy to work properly. The longer this conflict drags on, the more negative its effects on those sectors. And we are still talking on a situation without any serious escalation- because once that occurs all bets are off.

9] The response by Israel to this attack makes if almost impossible for that country to normalize relations with neighboring Arab countries in the near future and seriously damages those which had existed (Egypt, Jordan, UAE etc). Regardless of the personal wishes of any king or emir in that region, appearing even slightly sympathetic to Israel is now a real career-killer for any leader in that region- in more ways than one. This has major implications for the future security and business environment in Israel because USA, its preeminent patron, is now is decline. As some might know, Israel had put a lot of hope for its future (esp investment, markets etc) in normalizing relations with countries such Saudi Arabia etc- precisely because they wanted an off ramp when USA started going down the tube. That off ramp no longer exists.

10] The dumb Israeli response to that attack creates an entry point for other parties (Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, Yemeni militias etc) and neighboring states (Iran etc) to get involved in the situation, prolonging the conflict. This also makes it much harder for Israel to get back to the previous status quo. While many Americans might see this as a golden opportunity to attack those groups, it would be useful for them to first remember how things went in Iraq and Afghanistan. It does not help that the modern incarnations of Hezbollah and Yemeni militias are far more competent, battle hardened and numerous than anything faced by USA in Iraq or Afghanistan. Moreover, any attack on Iran would shut down oil production ad transport in Gulf region, in addition to imperiling the lives of all Americans (solders and civilians) in that region- and USA would almost certainly lose a few aircraft carriers in addition to multiple surface vessels.

Sure.. if USA wanted a massive disruption of oil transport and production + hundreds of thousands of American and western hostages + destruction of a few aircraft carries and scores of surface vessels + loss of American bases in that region- they can go ahead and try to start a war with Iran. We might also get to find out, first hand, if Iran has nuclear weapons. That country also has considerable indigenous military weapon systems and manufacturing capability. As the Ukraine war has shown us, the military manufacturing capability of USA and West have declined precipitously over past 2-3 decades. In next few weeks, we will find out if the “leadership” in USA is dumb enough to place itself in a situation where it suffers profound military humiliation and loss of face. As things stand now, there is a 50-50 chance that things might go that way.

What do you think? Comments?