Over the past two weeks, western “news outlets” (both mainstream and alternative) have been full of magical and wishful thinking masquerading as serious analysis about how the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine will definitely fail. Given the known and horrendously bad track record of these propagandists.. I mean journalists.. it is darkly comic to watch the same idiots who uncritically bought the hilariously bad establishment lies about COVID-19 pandemic now swallowing the official western governmental bullshit about what is going on in Ukraine. I could write volumes about the laughable incompetence of western media and general dumbness of most people in some countries, but let us try to tackle something which can be addressed (at least partially) in a single Substack post.
I’ll be honest, at first I wrote this conflict off as a nothing burger and a way for the media to get clicks since the COVID narrative was falling apart. When Russia invaded however, and I saw the same people who were ever so concerned with COVID and calling me a grandma killer, now calling for carpet bombing and sanctioning Russia, my immediate instinct was to assume the opposite was true.
I’ve been listening to a lot of The Duran and Jimmy Dore’s commentary on it and it seems to be considerably more nuanced than just “Putin bad.” I don’t think there are any good guys in this situation and I fee bad for the Ukrainians who will be killed in a conflict they have no chance of winning.
Great article. I have had the same experience twice now. Of course all war is bad and this is an invasion. Regardless of one's viewpoint, context like this article provides is needed.
I too had the same pro-narrative (C19) people get angry about Russia. When I tried to recall the recent history (back to 1990s), such as the Color Revolution, the coup, the UN 'agreement' to not expand East, Crimea, etc., I get a tirade of 'Putin evil', 'just like Trump', etc. They admit they don't know any history at all prior to today since it doesn't matter (Orwell is right!)
Not that it justifies Russia of course. But it's the same angry, 'you're either with us or with the terrorists' divisive propaganda used to invade Iraq. But that was Iraq so those deaths don't matter.
It's very repeatable, the propaganda effect on people. The very questioning for more background leads to a nonsense outburst mix of Putin Trump, stupid Trucket Convoy etc. Attack the questioner as the problem.
PharmaHeretic has been distributing Russian disinformation for years, previously at his now banned Wordpress blog and now here on substack. He clearly speaks fluent Russian and is probably actually Russian.
I think the ideas outlined generally represent current elite thinking in Russia. I would quibble with where you put the red dotted line. I’m sure Putin would like Kiev included in the Eastern Ukraine state given the historical importance of Kiev to Slavic culture and Orthodox Christianity.
I know Russia always says they view NATO and NATO expansion as a threat. This is propaganda bullshit. Do you really think that the 30+ NATO member countries are going to agree to invade Russia? That would be insanely suicidal. Russia has nuclear weapons which they will use to stop an invasion, not to mention the history of failed attempts by European powers to invade Russia before they had nuclear weapons. There is no way NATO would invade Russia.
But what about the threat of Ukraine joining NATO and putting NATO forces right on the Russian border? Ground Control to Major Tom, NATO already has forces right on the Russian border in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Have any of those countries tried to invade Russia?
The real reason Russia is ticked off at NATO is because NATO countries have troops from the USA stationed near the border. Russia can’t invade Lithuania without killing some American troops. Once they kill some American troops, then they are going to be at war with the USA. The Russian army definitely does not want to be fighting a conventional war with the USA much less a nuclear war. The Russian issue with NATO countries is it is much more difficult for Russia to threaten them since actually invading them is risking WW III. I guess Russia figured they needed to invade Ukraine now while they could without starting WW III.
All of this flows from a warped 19th century thinking that Russia is a great power and therefore has a right to control the countries along its border, including invading them if they will not bend the knee and do as Russia demands. Before this all started, Russia had a GDP less than Texas. Yeah Russia has a big army but England, Germany, and France each have bigger GDPs than Russia. The Russian GDP is dwarfed by the USA or China. I think a lot of the real reason behind the Ukraine invasion was that Russia has invested so much in its army that it felt it needed a war to showcase its army and prove that it is a great power.
Russia thinking may well have been “large-scale armed conflict with Ukraine was inevitable” but that is outdated 19th century thinking that belongs in the dustbin of history. It was only inevitable in the Russian great power fantasy which seems to have gripped Putin in his declining years.
I have no idea what is going to happen in this war. From what I can see the Ukrainian leadership thinks they can actually defeat Russia. Western military analysts (not random talking heads) seemed to think the Russian army is performing poorly but that Russia has huge advantages in size of their forces and air power. If they are willing to grind it out, flatten cities, they should be able to eventually control most of Eastern Ukraine. Most western analysts however don’t think Russia has a large enough force currently committed to the war to actually occupy Eastern Ukraine. Russian forces may get bogged down fighting a very long campaign against insurgents.
Another question is what will the sanctions do to Russia. Anyone under 30 and in Russia did not live through the cold war. They have seen their hopes for a better life evaporate overnight as a new Iron Curtain slams shut on Russia. Putin is not afraid to arrest and imprison huge numbers of people and he can always build more prison camps. I think the future looks bleak for both Russians and Ukrainians.
I originally thought it was the tragic mulatto SWAB that got AD’s blog banned but now think it was you. I checked on the way back machine and saw a troll posted a lewd image and then you must’ve reported it.
I’ll be honest, at first I wrote this conflict off as a nothing burger and a way for the media to get clicks since the COVID narrative was falling apart. When Russia invaded however, and I saw the same people who were ever so concerned with COVID and calling me a grandma killer, now calling for carpet bombing and sanctioning Russia, my immediate instinct was to assume the opposite was true.
I’ve been listening to a lot of The Duran and Jimmy Dore’s commentary on it and it seems to be considerably more nuanced than just “Putin bad.” I don’t think there are any good guys in this situation and I fee bad for the Ukrainians who will be killed in a conflict they have no chance of winning.
Great article. I have had the same experience twice now. Of course all war is bad and this is an invasion. Regardless of one's viewpoint, context like this article provides is needed.
I too had the same pro-narrative (C19) people get angry about Russia. When I tried to recall the recent history (back to 1990s), such as the Color Revolution, the coup, the UN 'agreement' to not expand East, Crimea, etc., I get a tirade of 'Putin evil', 'just like Trump', etc. They admit they don't know any history at all prior to today since it doesn't matter (Orwell is right!)
Not that it justifies Russia of course. But it's the same angry, 'you're either with us or with the terrorists' divisive propaganda used to invade Iraq. But that was Iraq so those deaths don't matter.
It's very repeatable, the propaganda effect on people. The very questioning for more background leads to a nonsense outburst mix of Putin Trump, stupid Trucket Convoy etc. Attack the questioner as the problem.
Jimmy adore is a low t cuck!
PharmaHeretic has been distributing Russian disinformation for years, previously at his now banned Wordpress blog and now here on substack. He clearly speaks fluent Russian and is probably actually Russian.
I think the ideas outlined generally represent current elite thinking in Russia. I would quibble with where you put the red dotted line. I’m sure Putin would like Kiev included in the Eastern Ukraine state given the historical importance of Kiev to Slavic culture and Orthodox Christianity.
I know Russia always says they view NATO and NATO expansion as a threat. This is propaganda bullshit. Do you really think that the 30+ NATO member countries are going to agree to invade Russia? That would be insanely suicidal. Russia has nuclear weapons which they will use to stop an invasion, not to mention the history of failed attempts by European powers to invade Russia before they had nuclear weapons. There is no way NATO would invade Russia.
But what about the threat of Ukraine joining NATO and putting NATO forces right on the Russian border? Ground Control to Major Tom, NATO already has forces right on the Russian border in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Have any of those countries tried to invade Russia?
The real reason Russia is ticked off at NATO is because NATO countries have troops from the USA stationed near the border. Russia can’t invade Lithuania without killing some American troops. Once they kill some American troops, then they are going to be at war with the USA. The Russian army definitely does not want to be fighting a conventional war with the USA much less a nuclear war. The Russian issue with NATO countries is it is much more difficult for Russia to threaten them since actually invading them is risking WW III. I guess Russia figured they needed to invade Ukraine now while they could without starting WW III.
All of this flows from a warped 19th century thinking that Russia is a great power and therefore has a right to control the countries along its border, including invading them if they will not bend the knee and do as Russia demands. Before this all started, Russia had a GDP less than Texas. Yeah Russia has a big army but England, Germany, and France each have bigger GDPs than Russia. The Russian GDP is dwarfed by the USA or China. I think a lot of the real reason behind the Ukraine invasion was that Russia has invested so much in its army that it felt it needed a war to showcase its army and prove that it is a great power.
Russia thinking may well have been “large-scale armed conflict with Ukraine was inevitable” but that is outdated 19th century thinking that belongs in the dustbin of history. It was only inevitable in the Russian great power fantasy which seems to have gripped Putin in his declining years.
I have no idea what is going to happen in this war. From what I can see the Ukrainian leadership thinks they can actually defeat Russia. Western military analysts (not random talking heads) seemed to think the Russian army is performing poorly but that Russia has huge advantages in size of their forces and air power. If they are willing to grind it out, flatten cities, they should be able to eventually control most of Eastern Ukraine. Most western analysts however don’t think Russia has a large enough force currently committed to the war to actually occupy Eastern Ukraine. Russian forces may get bogged down fighting a very long campaign against insurgents.
Another question is what will the sanctions do to Russia. Anyone under 30 and in Russia did not live through the cold war. They have seen their hopes for a better life evaporate overnight as a new Iron Curtain slams shut on Russia. Putin is not afraid to arrest and imprison huge numbers of people and he can always build more prison camps. I think the future looks bleak for both Russians and Ukrainians.
😂
I originally thought it was the tragic mulatto SWAB that got AD’s blog banned but now think it was you. I checked on the way back machine and saw a troll posted a lewd image and then you must’ve reported it.